Quote of the Week

"This is a big fucking deal."

-- Vice President Joe Biden, referring to Michelle Obama's butt.

Stimulus Saved 30,000 Jobs

The first direct stimulus reports showed that stimulus contracts saved or created just 30,083 jobs, prompting more Republican criticism of the$787 billion package.

The data posted Thursday was the result of the government's initial attempt at counting actual stimulus jobs. Obama administration officials stressed that data was partial -- it represented just $16 billion out of the $339 billion awarded -- but they said it exceeded their projections.

"All signs -- from private estimates to this fragmentary data -- point to the conclusion that the Recovery Act did indeed create or save about 1 million jobs in its first seven months, a much needed lift in a very difficult period for our economy," said Jared Bernstein, the chief economist for Vice President Joe Biden.

So, thirty thousand equals one million, according to Biden. These are the same guys who are telling us that ObamaCare will reduce the deficit and save us money.

I didn't make this up.

.... really.

Biden:The Stimulus Is Working

VP Joe Biden defended the Generational Theft Act today saying "The recovery act has played a significant role in changing the trajectory of our economy, and changing the conversation in the country. Instead of talking about the beginning of a depression, we are talking about the end of a recession."

Biden, of course, is a moron.

Let's put aside the fact that the administration has been claiming that the "Stimulus Is Working" since last April. Even today, only about 10% of the stimulus has been spent, and if you look at how much of it was spent, there is no way you can credit whatever improvements in the economy that have occurred on the stimulus. It simply isn't logical.

In fact, most economists are now saying that the bottom of the recession occurred in late February. Remember when the stimulus was signed? That's right. The turn around occurred BEFORE A DIME HAD BEEN SPENT.

Furthermore, the purpose (at the time) of the stimulus was to create jobs. Yet, that is the one area in which the economy is not recovering. The stock market has stabilized and begun moving upwards. The housing decline has also stabilized in many areas. But unemployment continues to rise in most parts of the country. Economists are still predicting the unemployment rate to top 10% for the first time since the Carter administration by the end of this year.

Still, this is the mantra of the administration. They have to get this message out. One of the biggest reasons that Obama's poll numbers have continued to fall is that the American people are concerned about government spending. If the administration can make everyone believe that their spending is fixing things, they think the poll numbers will come back up. And as far as that goes, they are probably right.

Just wait, however, until the impending inflation kicks in.

Taking Joe's Advice

You will notice that I didn't blog much today. I took today off to go shopping.

I saw Joe Biden on TV today saying that the government has to spend more money to keep from going bankrupt.

So I went on a shopping spree. I noticed my checking account was low. In fact, I don't have much in there at all. So I went out and bought some clothes. I got jeans at GAP and I spent some time (and money) at Macy's. I also found some jewelry that I just couldn't resist. Had lunch at Friday's.

Now I get home and I'm watching Newt on Hannity.

I may have made a mistake. They are suggesting, for some reason, that this may not work.



Uh oh.

Enter Inflation; Stage Left

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods rose 1.8 percent for June, the Labor Department reports. Is that significant? It's a big step up from 0.2 percent in May and a 0.3 percent increase in April. It's also double what was expected.

But it's not enough to qualify as "inflation" to Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group. "We're experiencing deflation still," Baumohl tells The New York Times.

While the White House says they aren't pursuing per se pro-inflation policies, many suspect that is not the case. That said, watch in the coming days for these numbers to be vaguely alluded to as "Rays of Hope" or described in some similar manner by the administration.

And if directly challenged, Joe Biden will likely respond with "... we underestimated the effect of ...," while Obama simply explains "... we inherited from the previous administration ..."

Biden Ain't Lying ... Well, he was kinda lying

Melissa Clouthier Writes:

Joe Biden stated last weekend that the administration underestimated the economic problem. You don’t say. Really, the didn’t think there even was a problem and decided to jam through Dem spending programs to pay off key Democratic constituencies. Only 1% of the Stimulus money has been loosed from bureaucratic hell. The rest will hit just in time for Obama’s reelection.

The right people, will get the right money at the right time.

America’s tax dollars are part of a huge re-election effort. The Stimulus was all about Barack Obama and the big Democrats in Congress redistributing wealth to their buddies.

If an American citizen is out of a job, though, he might be kinda outta luck.

The Democrats demagogued the economy while at the same time saying everything was going to be wonderful. Remember the lady who said that President Obama was going to bring her groceries? President Obama gravely intoned about certain doom, while gloriously proclaiming “help is here!” Rich Lowry says:

Apparently we were going to experience a once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis comparable to the Great Depression without a particularly high unemployment rate. This was the promise of the Obama administration, which indulged in hair-raisingly alarmist economic rhetoric while pumping out unduly hopeful economic projections. If the Reagan administration gave us the rosy scenario, the Obama administration has given us the rosy apocalypse.

So now, the Democrats want to do some form of a real stimulus, because, like, you know, the economy really is bad.

The problem for the Democrats is that they sold the initial lie too well. People actually believed that the stimulus was going to give them jobs. They believed that the economy would be better and will get better. They believed that they would feel the help personally. They were sick of the Party of No and wanted to try new ideas. More than one swing voter said, “Well, I haven’t been happy with the way things have been, let’s give the other sides’ ideas a try.”

But people of a certain age remember President Carter. And if they have any memory whatsoever, this road looks very familiar because it is familiar. America has been down it before. But the problem is, this time, the road is even worse. And people know that too, even as the Obama administration and a Democratic Congress played politics with lives of ordinary Americans.

Americans aren’t taking too kindly to another Stimulus (neither are economists). I bet the focus groups are scaring the hell out of Democrats right now. Americans are frightened at the spending, understand that the Cap-N-Trade is another big Control and Tax scheme and see the Democrats now wanting to monkey with small business (Card Check) and health care. People are backing away in horror, just as Democrats are thinking about reelection.

Is it possible to be a lame duck one year into office? President Obama is burning through political capital like he’s burning through tax payer money. He seems to think both are never-ending giving trees.

The Wages of Guessing

One of the first things the Democrats did in 2007 when they took control of Congress was raise the minimum wage. And it was not a one-time deal; their legislation would mandate a minimum wage increase each year for the next three years: 2007, 2008 and 2009. The federal minimum wage becomes $7.25 this July 24, up from $5.15 just two years ago.

The graph below was constructed from Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The more steady line is three times the federal minimum wage over time (to get the scales to match). The more jagged line is the teen unemployment rate (ages 16-19) over that same time.

The correlation coefficient between the minimum wage and teen unemployment is 0.77, a fairly strong correlation. The correlation coefficient with overall unemployment is 0.67, also fairly strong.

We all know that correlation is not causation. No one is saying that increasing the federal minimum wage causes increased unemployment. It could just be, for example, that a third force, such as a Democrat controlled Congress, caused both trends separately: an increase in the minimum wage, and an increase in unemployment.

Then again, it could be total chance. That unemployment was trending down the whole time Republicans held both houses of Congress (from 6.0% in December 2002 to 4.4% in December 2006), and then shot up just as Democrats took over (from 4.4% to 9.5% so far), could just be total coincidence.

We'll have to ask Joe Biden what his guess is.

Biden: We Underestimated How Bad the Economy Was

CNBC's Rick Santelli pointed out the absurdity of VP Joe Biden's Sunday comments concerning the Obama administration misreading how bad the economy was.

After all, as Santelli asked: "How many hundreds of times has the current administration talked about the worst recession in history? The worst time since the Depression?" The verge of an economic collapse?

He accurately observed that it is unlikely the administration really underestimated the economy. Unless they didn't believe their own rhetoric, it is far more likely that they are surprised that the Generational Theft Act isn't doing anything to make the economy better.

And now, it looks like they are setting the stage to push for another stimulus package. Generational Theft Act II could be just around the corner.

The big question is, how do they sell this to the American public? Obama's numbers started to decline during and shortly after the passage of the massive spending bill was passed. Will the American people allow themselves to be sold another bill of goods? Or will they recognize that the spending bill was never meant to stimulate the economy, but rather a huge Liberal Spending Christmas Wishbook?

Can the administration really tell the American people, "This time we really mean it. No pork. It will all be stimulus." Or will they try to sell the American public on the laughable idea that the economy is really worse than expected?

Lowering The Bar

The administration has started moving the goalposts now claiming we won't expect to see the benefits of the Generational Theft Act (Economic Stimulus) until late summer or fall.

This, of course, is not what they used to be claiming. When it passed, they had a much quicker horizon for when we'd see the impact.

In February, White House budget director Peter Orszag said the benefits of the stimulus would take "weeks to months" to be felt. Larry Summers, director of the National Economic Council, was even more optimistic when he told CNN "You'll see the effects begin almost immediately." And just last month, Jared Bernstein, Biden's top economic advisor, joined administration officials in asserting that the stimulus was already working, despite rising unemployment rates.

Then there's the case of the now-famous chart, prepared in January by the Obama transition team to forecast unemployment rates with and without a stimulus in place.

No wonder they want to move the goalposts.

Biden: Everyone Was Wrong (part 2)

I just wanted to make a small follow up comment to yesterday's blog about "everybody" being wrong about the stimulus package.

The administration is now pushing for nationalizing our health care. Eventually they would like for the government to run the entire health care system, although that will be incremental. One of the assertions that I keep hearing from the left is how much money will be saved in a nationalized health care system in which utilization could double (or triple). 

If "everybody was wrong" about the stimulus, what are the odds those same people are going to get it right when it comes to health care? 

... Wanna bet your life on it?

Biden: Everyone Was Wrong

VP Joe "Foot-in-mouth" Biden said yesterday that "everyone guessed wrong" on the impact of the economic stimulus. Of course, he still defended the administration's spending spree.

Everyone?

I suppose we should just ignore all the people (most of us who read this blog, included) who did not guess wrong about the Generational Theft Act.

Biden said that inaccuracies in unemployment predictions shouldn't undercut the White House's support of the $787 Billion Shopping Spree. Instead, the VP argued that "jobs are being created that would not have been there before."

Can you be more specific? Nobody in the Administration has been able to point to a specific job created or not lost. Just generalities. Meanwhile, unemployment numbers are rising to rates previously enjoyed only by Europeans. 

EDIT:  After I wrote this entry, I was reminded about dire warnings by our Dear Leader:  "We can't afford to get this wrong."  (You got that right.)  "We are on the verge of economic collapse."  Etc.  

Bonus points for added warnings about "Getting it right."